I took part in another tournament this morning. It was fun!
During the game I was presented with a bit of a puzzler. I was dealt 7 Spades but most of them were pretty low.
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| what would you bid with 7 Spades? |
I wound up bidding 3, while nana bid 6. Notice the scores and bag situation. I've posted more details on
Facebook here:
https://www.facebook.com/WorldOfCardGames/photos/a.1453220478280028.1073741829.1384938725108204/1566662763602465/?type=1&theater
You don't have to be a Facebook user to see the Facebook post. I am curious to know what you would have bid, and why - you can comment here, or on Facebook.
20 comments:
I would be tempted to bid 5 but would have ended up at 4. If successful, your team would enter the next hand at 438 with no change in your bags. Your P"s bid of 1 suggests that he doesn't have the K or A of spades and perhaps little else...but perhaps has an ace which he will get to play on trick 1 (he has the lead).. .
Nana will probably bid 4 to avoid bags.
-whatever
Interesting... My partner Abhi clearly had no problem bidding nil. So I had a feeling he would have bid nil if he felt remotely safe doing so, but instead he bid 1...
I was guessing that his 1 bid could mean a few things: he had a single high Spade, perhaps King or Ace or maybe Queen, and then maybe low cards in every other suit. Or maybe he was short in a suit, and also had high card(s) in it (e.g. a single Ace in one suit or Ace+10, something like that).
Three... every time. I like this thread, btw. Thanks.
- drdammit
ps your Hearts bots really suck
)
pps ask me why and I'll tell you
ppps and if there is any reason to keep track of wins and losses for games joined in progress, I want to hear it
- drdammit
p+ Oh great. Spades with no bags... less skill involved.
grrr
deletably yours,
drdammit
I do know the bots are amateurs... Please tell me why (maybe in an email if it's too detailed). Periodically I do try to improve them. I just haven't had time in a while.
My reasoning goes like this (and only applies for those who care about their stats): if you join a game in progress, and win, you will be annoyed if the win is not recorded in your stats. So the win is recorded. But it's not fair to only record wins in this case. Therefore, if you lose, it is recorded as well.
There is a game option that allows you to avoid games that are in progress. Also, the table listings show you whether a game has started or not. So it's reasonable to assume that if you join a game in progress, you know that you may be coming into a bad position, and you know it might affect your stats poorly. People who don't want that can easily avoid games in progress.
:) not too many people use the "no bag" option for Spades. It was added at the request of player on the site, and you can always avoid those tables by setting your Spades options appropriately.
You have 7 spades. If you postulate one in your pard's hand ( the one-bidder), the likeliest split for the ops is 3-2. I would guess pard has one of the top spade honors, hence the one bid. Putting the other two in LHO's hand your hand will make 5 on best play. On a bad day, when pard bid a stiff ace for one, and the split is 4-2 or something, the hand will make 3 or 4. I would never bid less than four on this lie in order to avoid bags for our team. Even if AKJ sits behind you, you always make your Q plus a few ruffs on your doubletons. Most likely, after 3 rounds of spades you will have the rest.
Nice analysis, thank you! I did wind up taking 4, although I bid 3.
Unless a distinction is made between complete games and games joined in progress (or begun with robots), your Spades statistics don't accurately reflect anyone's level of play... is there is a reason to measure anything else?
It is a smaller point than it would be if a player's stats were not private. For me, it would be nice if I could look at my stats and tell how well I'm playing.
By your measure, I am a below average player (341 - 469).
I'm not insulted , but I believe it's untrue.
Statistics don't lie, but they definitely CAN be misleading.
As proof that my statistics are meaningless, I'd like to play in a few of your tournaments. I'd take any partner (though I do have a preference, who happens to be the second-best player here), and I'd kick all yer little butts. But 7 AM Saturday morning? That's a problem. I had an alarm clock once, but it kept waking me up, so I broke it.
- drdammit
"... if you join a game in progress, and win, you will be annoyed if the win is not recorded in your stats. "
To be avoid this, a player need only understand that stats to do not include games they didn't begin. They can play just for the fun it or, if they're working on their stats , just quit and join a game that hasn't already started.
"So the win is recorded. But it's not fair to only record wins in this case. Therefore, if you lose, it is recorded as well."
In almost all cases, games joined in progress will be games that your team is losing. Some people will stay and fight it out. I always do. Some quit immediately, avoiding a loss. This means that, to at least some degree, what your stats are measuring is how much someone is willing to stay and play even when it seems to be a losing cause, instead of their skill as a Spades player.
My stats for the last two weeks (I'll stop keeping them now and try to get a life).
Games joined in progress: 22 - 23
Complete games: 25 - 9
It's possible that I only said everything I said previously so that I could brag about my 25 - 9.
- drdammit
ps make your Hearts bots pass at least one heart, though never the ace, and no spades lower than the queen
pps a -10 JD Hearts option would be great, I say
Hi drdammit,
Unless a distinction is made between complete games and games joined in progress (or begun with robots), your Spades statistics don't accurately reflect anyone's level of play... is there is a reason to measure anything else?
I agree with you. For example, I play w bot partners all the time and also enter games in progress, often to find myself in a very bad seat (where I soon lose). I don't believe that my stats are a very good measure of how well I play. I believe that I play at my best in tournaments with a known partner. I do think the stats give you a pretty good average, however, that indicates how you are playing. If someone wins a lot of games, but also abandons a lot of them, this says they are probably someone who quits games when losing. Even that piece of information can be useless: are they quitting in games vs bots (where it doesn't really matter) or in games vs humans (where it does matter, because they're annoying other people)? The site does not collect this information.
When I got the site, the statistics were already in place, and lots of players had accumulated stats. I did not want to change anything for fear of freaking people out - I think many people would be unhappy to see their "legacy" stats wiped away. The stats have the advantage of being "easy to understand". Ideally we'd have separate stats for bot-only games (where it's usually easier to win), all-human games where no one ever left the table, and so on. It would take some work and require a totally new user interface to show all those stats - not to mention storage issues.
It is a smaller point than it would be if a player's stats were not private
The inaccuracy of the stats is one reason I don't think it's a good idea to make them public. Also, I think that public stats make people more liable to game the system, which also would cause the stats to be lying liars.
For me, it would be nice if I could look at my stats and tell how well I'm playing.
In most games, you will play better or worse depending on the quality of the people you are playing with. This is why I think stats aren't saying much at a site like World of Card Games. I think most players are just looking for a game to have some fun and socialize during the day. A card shark will win in most such games. The other players won't care much, they are just having fun.
On top of that, let's face it, this is the internet. I think if I did publish a leaderboard, it would quickly be dominated by players who cheat. I don't understand the mindset of people who cheat to get to the top of a leaderboard that has no reward, but it definitely happens. (I'm not saying that every leaderboard on the internet is dominated by cheaters.)
As proof that my statistics are meaningless, I'd like to play in a few of your tournaments
I would love to have you play in our tournaments! We could use more participants! What is keeping you from joining in? When is a convenient time for you to play? Where are you, anyway?
IMO, you will have a far better indication of your mad skilz in the league than you will get from the stats on the site - but only if you play often enough. I know some very skilled players who do not play frequently enough for their good skills to boost them in our league rankings. Also, what I said above applies - the players at your table matter when it comes to how well you'll do. If your partner doesn't take the game as seriously as you do then you probably won't do as well either. There's nothing wrong with this, IMO. The league's motto is "It Just Doesn't Matter!" and there's a reason for that :) Even so, I think many of the league players take their games very seriously and are doing their best to win (I do). So we want you to play! How can I help get you into a tournament?
Marya
Hi again drdammit (@July 5, 2015 at 6:21 AM),
To be avoid this, a player need only understand that stats to do not include games they didn't begin. They can play just for the fun it or, if they're working on their stats , just quit and join a game that hasn't already started.
I've been tempted to do this. In fact I introduced a new stat, the "absolute" stat, as a step in this direction.
The question is, is it right to change the conditions that apply to existing statistics after people have accumulated a lot of stats? I don't like to do this. That means I'd need to introduce yet more (different) stats, requiring more information to be stored, and displayed in the interface. If enough people want it, I will do it. I haven't had very much feedback that people want the stats done differently (or even care).
In almost all cases, games joined in progress will be games that your team is losing. Some people will stay and fight it out. I always do. Some quit immediately, avoiding a loss.
Oftentimes I sit down to a spot where the player was winning. But I admit that I haven't kept track (I don't care about stats, except in League games). If I win in that case, do you really think that it shouldn't count for my stats? I think most people would want the win recorded. But recording a win in this case, without recording a similar loss, just seems wrong to me.
You have the ability to always avoid games in progress by checking the "Avoid Games in Progress" option. Also: you can see how long a game has been going by checking the table listings. If a game has been in progress for 40 minutes, chances are that if you join it, most of the credit for the result - win or lose - is due to the previous player. So, don't join such games if you'd prefer that the win or loss be your own - you have that choice.
Just curious, why do you join games in progress if you really really care about your stats? I added the "Avoid" option specifically to help people with this. Personally, I tend to join games from the table listings these days. I like joining games in progress, because often I don't have so much time to play.
Thanks for the comment about Hearts. I've decided to add the JD hearts option (eventually) and I will add your Hearts bots suggestion to my to-consider list. Although, personally, I do not always pass one Heart; it depends. Does that make me a bad player?!
Marya
bid 4, one for the first four spades and one for each additional spade...
To drdammit... Ive can attest to your progress over the last year... you are good.. I may have looked at my stats once, too long ago to remember... just have fun and roll with it
bid 4, odds are your partner is going to catch 1 extra.
I would have bid 4.
You have two diamonds, two clubs, and two hearts. You can surely trump each suit after you exhaust it with a low spade and still have 4 spades left over, leading with a low spade each trick you take to burn other players spades.
Since it is extremely unlikely that any other player will have more than 3 spades, your seventh spade should also easily win you a trick.
Centurion
IIRC I was a little worried my partner would not make his bid and therefore was more cautious in bidding...
I would have bid 4.
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